BIRTHDAY BLUES FOR ASEAN

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) turned 40 this summer, raising the question of whether the regional grouping is facing a mid-life crisis. Or, alternatively, is it on the verge of maturing into a more cohesive and relevant organization capable of carrying out its self-proclaimed "driver's seat" role in East Asia community-building?

Only time will tell, but there are some encouraging signs that ASEAN may be coming of age, beginning with the creation of the new ASEAN Charter to manage "the key challenges of regional integration, globalization, economic growth, and new technologies". A formal charter would add a "legal personality" and a greater degree of cohesiveness and clarity to earlier efforts to build an ASEAN community (or more precisely, three interrelated communities: an ASEAN security community, an ASEAN economic community and an ASEAN socio-cultural community).

ASEAN's Eminent Persons Group (EPG) provided the assembled leadership a draft charter at the 2006 annual ASEAN summit in Cebu, Philippines. Since then, an ASEAN high-level task force has been hard at work, refining (read: toning down) some of the more dramatic suggestions, such as a controversial section recommending sanctions, including expulsion from ASEAN, for those violating the charter, which has reportedly been dropped.

The EPG also recommended that ASEAN relax its full-consensus decision-making style; it remains to be seen whether this suggestion, and one opposing "extra-constitutional" methods of changing government, as happened last year in Thailand, will make the final cut.

One controversial provision that apparently did make the cut last month was the establishment of a new Human Rights Commission, over initial objections by Myanmar, among others. While the final version has not yet been seen - it is scheduled to be unveiled and approved at the November ASEAN summit in Singapore - the charter is expected to "accelerate ASEAN integration" while making it a more "rules-based" organization.

One ASEAN senior official noted that the new charter "would also help put into place a system in which more ASEAN agreements would be effectively implemented and enforced long after the symbolic signing ceremonies". To those who have long accused ASEAN of valuing form over substance, this will be a welcome development.

More good news came in the naming of former Thai foreign minister Surin Pitsuwan as ASEAN's next secretary general, effective next January. Surin, a Muslim, is seen as a proactive supporter of greater "constructive engagement" both within ASEAN and between ASEAN and its neighbors. He will, according to incumbent secretary general Ong Keng Yong, "have a clear direction and more of a mandate" as a result of the charter. There is no questioning his energy, enthusiasm, and commitment - what remains to be seen is how much of a collective voice he will be able to employ, and to what end.

As part of its "coming of age" process, ASEAN is also developing a "plan of action" to enhance its 10-year-old Treaty of the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapons Free Zone (SEANWFZ), which prohibits the development, testing, or basing of nuclear weapons within its territories while permitting nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.

I would offer a suggestion to those tasked with drawing up the implementation plan, namely an amendment to the SEANWFZ that would prohibit reprocessing or enrichment activities within the region, thus closing one of the current Non-Proliferation Treaty loopholes that have contributed to the current difficulties with North Korea and Iran. This should increase the treaty’s attractiveness to those parties, including the United States, that have not yet acceded to the treaty.

Meanwhile, Washington's relations with ASEAN have never been deeper while appearing so shallow. US Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte, at last month's annual ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) meeting, applauded the effort to develop a charter that "strengthened democratic values, good governance, the rule of law, and respect for human rights and freedom".

He also marked the 30th anniversary of US-ASEAN relations by refining and strengthening the Enhanced Partnership Plan of Action signed between Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and her ASEAN counterparts during the July 2006 ARF meeting. This action plan grew out of the Enhanced Partnership joint vision statement announced by US President George W Bush and assembled ASEAN leaders during the first ever US-ASEAN summit along the sidelines of the November 2005 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders' meeting.

The plan of action guides cooperation as ASEAN advances toward its goal of political, economic and social integration while enhancing cooperation on critical transnational challenges such as terrorism, narcotics trafficking, infectious diseases, and protecting the environment.

It complements the August 2006 US-ASEAN Trade and Investment Framework Arrangement that established a regular and formal dialogue on trade and investment matters and a joint work plan to enhance two-way trade that exceeded US$168 billion last year. Collectively, ASEAN is America's fourth-largest trading partner; to date, US companies have invested nearly $90 billion in ASEAN countries.

That's the good news. Unfortunately, when it comes to US-ASEAN relations, form has not matched substance. Rice this year missed her second ARF meeting (out of three opportunities) and Bush canceled the full US-ASEAN summit, which had been planned by Singapore after this year's APEC summit.

As a result, Bush's third summit with the "ASEAN Seven" - the ASEAN members of APEC (Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Brunei, the Philippines and Vietnam; the other members of ASEAN are Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar) - appears to be a consolation prize, rather than another significant step forward. One frequently hears the accusation that Washington is "neglecting" Southeast Asia, despite the above-cited significant advancements.

To correct this perception, and given the fact that Bush has yet to make his first trip to East Asia this year, serious consideration should be given to arranging such a visit coincident with this year's Singapore-hosted East Asia Summit, to underscore Washington's support for ASEAN's coming-of-age process. It would further permit Bush to be invited as a special guest to the East Asia Summit, while skirting tricky membership questions, thus showing support for East Asia community-building as well.